On the cusp of greatness - F1 2024

It is the eve of the first race weekend of the 2024 season. Which of these 2024 drivers has the best shot at giving the odds on favorite Max Verstappen a run for his money?

Best Odds:

Charles Leclerc, Lando Norris, Lewis Hamilton, Fernando Alonso, & Carlos Sainz

My before the season even starts guess is Leclerc, with Hamilton a close second in the best chance to unseat Verstappen as World Champ. Leclerc just needs a consistently reliable car, and an even more reliable race strategy. I think Ferrari has the car, but this weekend will prove out their race pace. When it comes to race pace, Mercedes look to be on top of race pace in testing, but again, nothing can really be discerned from 3 days of testing other than reliability and tire degradation. Speed, lap times, sure we can sort of see who keeps appearing at the top of the list after each day, but no one but the teams themselves know just what fuel load they are running with, and how much more the power can be turned up on the engines. So gut feels for who will have the most success week to week against Verstappen, will be those two.

As for Alonso, Sainz, and Norris? I see each of those guys having a shot at a podium here and there, but not consistently enough to put points on the board to mount a challenge to Max. I do again see a very good chance Norris finally wins a race this season. Sainz probably even a better chance at taking the top prize on a random weekend or two, but I think Alonso and Aston Martin struggle out of the gates compared to last year, and may not find their footing till they get an upgrade package.

The Dark Horses:

Daniel Ricciardo, Carlos Sainz, Alex Albon, Oscar Piastri, George Russell

Each of these guys for sure has a shot to be great this season, with Sainz and Piastri having the better chance with the cars they get to drive. Sainz as I said above is in that group with the best odds for the season, and I'm projecting maybe a win or two, but he could for sure surprise everyone. He is a man without a confirmed seat for next season, and thus a man on a mission. Everything to gain, and nothing to lose makes him a threat each and every weekend, and he was the only non Red Bull driver to win last season. Piastri would be the next solid bet on a dark horse with a quick car and more experience heading into this season, keep an eye on McLarens #2 to be running and gunning. Russell comes in third in this group as I don't quite know how this season will shake out for him with the weight of Hamilton's last stand at Mercedes looming large. We still also need to see how this edition of the car will fair, and so far signs look good.

Albon and Ricciardo are in the mix for best of the rest in my opinion. Ricciardo has Perez in his sights with the goal of unseating the pride of Mexico for next season. Albon wants to be considered for Mercedes' vacant seat, and could make a strong case if he does well this season. I do see Mercedes going for a young lineup come 2025, so I'm swimming against the tide a bit and not seeing Alonso as a consideration. Look to Albon and Ricciardo to be making noise in the midfield.

FP1 is just hours away!!!!